Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sassuolo travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa in Serie A (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genoa stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genoa have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.30 PPG, Sassuolo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2023, ended Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo — a Genoa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 61%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Sassuolo 58%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 61% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.916 / defence 1.073 | Sassuolo attack 0.867 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.172. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.441 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Genoa's last 35 games and Sassuolo's last 73.
Result probabilities: Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.88 | Draw 4.03 | Sassuolo 4.55. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Genoa 1.80 / Sassuolo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.916 / def 1.073 | Sassuolo attack 0.867 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Genoa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sassuolo xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Genoa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Genoa 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Genoa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sassuolo part of?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 53% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genoa and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genoa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 35 games and Sassuolo's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.03
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.09
Sassuolo xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
27.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Genoa and 1.09 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 31W 24D 18L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 19W 17D 37L from 73 games, 1.01 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Genoa are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 36 home games (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 8D 22L from their last 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.21 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
Genoa (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Genoa vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 31W 24D 18L in their last 73 games (1.60 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 19W 17D 37L in their last 73 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sassuolo away?
Genoa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.83 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Genoa or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Genoa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 4, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Sassuolo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 67% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sassuolo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Sassuolo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 56% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 67% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genoa's recent matches and 78% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Sassuolo attack 0.87 / defence 1.44, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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