Empoli 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena than their overall form suggests.
Udinese — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.10 PPG, Udinese 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 2 for Udinese and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 34% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 30% | Udinese 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and Udinese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.643 / defence 0.770 | Udinese attack 0.919 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.320. Empoli's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Empoli games / 50 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Udinese 32%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Udinese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Udinese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Empoli 1.01 / Udinese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.643 / def 0.770 | Udinese attack 0.919 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Udinese xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Udinese kick off?
Empoli vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Empoli 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Empoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Udinese part of?
Empoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 36% chance of winning, Udinese a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Empoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
Record (6 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 3 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Empoli and Udinese in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.64x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.11
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Udinese xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Empoli and 0.93 for Udinese, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 15D 23L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 11W 20D 19L from 50 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.02 PPG, Udinese on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 6W 9D 10L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.04 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 12W 15D 23L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 20D 19L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.04 PPG; Udinese away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
4
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 20%, Udinese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Empoli and 36% for Udinese.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 64% of games; Udinese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Empoli's recent games and 36% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Udinese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Udinese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.01 xG and Udinese 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.64 / defence 0.77 against Udinese attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Udinese 32%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 30%, Udinese 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.02 PPG, Udinese 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.