Empoli 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lazio have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lazio are 1.10 PPG clear of Empoli in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Lazio have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Empoli's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 38% | Lazio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.82 xG and Lazio 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.723 / defence 1.253 | Lazio attack 1.137 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.112. Empoli's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Empoli games / 72 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 19% | Draw 26% | Lazio 55%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 50% | Lazio 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 19% | Draw 26% | Lazio 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 0.82 / Lazio 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.723 / def 1.253 | Lazio attack 1.137 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lazio (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Lazio xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Lazio kick off?
Empoli vs Lazio kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Empoli 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Empoli vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Lazio part of?
Empoli vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 19% chance of winning, Lazio a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
Record (7 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 2 | Lazio 5W.
What form are Empoli and Lazio in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.72) and Lazio's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.14x) against Empoli's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
19%
5.27
26%
3.83
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.41
1.58
Lazio xG
5.27
19%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
25.68
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Empoli and 1.58 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lazio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 22D 37L from 72 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 21L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 6W 12D 17L from 35 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 18W 4D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.47 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Lazio in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 22D 37L in their last 72 games (0.85 PPG), while Lazio have gone 35W 16D 21L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.86 PPG; Lazio away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Empoli
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 29%, Lazio 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Empoli) and 54% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Empoli's recent matches and 54% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Empoli's recent games and 54% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Lazio tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Lazio in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.82 xG and Lazio 1.58 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Lazio attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 19% | Draw 26% | Lazio 55%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 38%, Lazio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.