Cremonese 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.70 PPG versus Atalanta's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 0, Atalanta 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 69% and Atalanta 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 58% | Atalanta 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.88 xG and Atalanta 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.900 / defence 1.118 | Atalanta attack 1.322 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.068. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 45 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 52%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Atalanta 1.92. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 60% | Atalanta 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Cremonese 0.88 / Atalanta 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.900 / def 1.118 | Atalanta attack 1.322 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Atalanta xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Atalanta kick off?
Cremonese vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Cremonese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Atalanta part of?
Cremonese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 19% chance of winning, Atalanta a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Atalanta in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Atalanta's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
19%
5.25
29%
3.42
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.46
1.58
Atalanta xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
25.43
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.5 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.58 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 18D 9L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.89 PPG from 45 outings (24W 13D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.60 PPG, Atalanta on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 8W 11D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.14 points per game from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.98 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 18W 18D 9L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 24W 13D 8L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.59 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
2
Draws
2
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Atalanta?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Atalanta have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 73%, Atalanta 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 54% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Cremonese's recent matches and 36% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 54% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.88 xG and Atalanta 1.58 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Atalanta attack 1.32 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 19% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 52%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 58%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.60 PPG, Atalanta 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.