Cagliari 0-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 5D 3L at Unipol Domus — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cagliari, 1.00 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cagliari 2W, Bologna 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 63% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Bologna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.42 xG and Bologna 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.866 / defence 1.240 | Bologna attack 1.051 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.279. Data: 47 Cagliari games / 46 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Cagliari 1.42 / Bologna 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.866 / def 1.240 | Bologna attack 1.051 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Bologna xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Bologna kick off?
Cagliari vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bologna part of?
Cagliari vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Bologna a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cagliari and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cagliari vs Bologna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.05x) against Cagliari's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
31%
3.25
28%
3.61
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.09
1.67
Bologna xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
6%
17.20
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.67 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 10W 14D 22L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 19W 20D 7L from 46 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 11D 5L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.37 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 14D 22L in their last 46 games (0.96 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 20D 7L in their last 46 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.30 PPG; Bologna away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Cagliari, 61% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cagliari) and 56% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cagliari's games and 61% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cagliari's matches and 56% of Bologna's.
Do Cagliari and Bologna tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bologna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.42 xG and Bologna 1.67 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 1.24 against Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Bologna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.