Cagliari 0-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Bologna.

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Full Analysis

Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 10). Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Cagliari (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Cagliari have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bologna have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cagliari, 1.00 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Cagliari 2–1 Bologna — a Cagliari win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bologna — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 63% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Bologna 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.42 xG and Bologna 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.866 / defence 1.240 | Bologna attack 1.051 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.279. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 47 games and Bologna's last 46.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.25 | Draw 3.61 | Bologna 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 70% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).

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