Bologna 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.40 PPG versus Torino's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Bologna, 2 for Torino and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 3–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 2.11 xG and Torino 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.313 / defence 0.826 | Torino attack 1.105 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.067. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Bologna games / 46 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 23% | Torino 15%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Torino 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 60% | Torino 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 23% | Torino 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Bologna 2.11 / Torino 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.313 / def 0.826 | Torino attack 1.105 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bologna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Torino xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Bologna vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 62% chance of winning, Torino a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 2 | Torino 2W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.31) and Torino's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.40
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.08
0.97
Torino xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
54.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Bologna and 0.97 for Torino, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 16D 10L from 46 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 17L across 46 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torino heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 13W 7D 2L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Torino's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 16D 10L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Torino have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.09 PPG; Torino away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bologna or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Torino in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 59%, Torino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bologna) and 41% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Torino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bologna's recent games and 41% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Torino tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Torino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, as Bologna and Torino drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 2.11 xG and Torino 0.97 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Torino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.31 / defence 0.83 against Torino attack 1.10 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 62% | Draw 23% | Torino 15%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Torino's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.