Atalanta 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Pisa in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atalanta haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 2W 4D 4L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Pisa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pisa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Atalanta against 1.90 for Pisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Pisa — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 50% versus Pisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 55% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.069 / defence 1.038 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.158. Data: 38 Atalanta games / 0 Pisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 28% | Pisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 3.85. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 28% | Pisa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Atalanta 1.44 / Pisa 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.069 / def 1.038 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pisa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Pisa kick off?
Atalanta vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Pisa?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Atalanta vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Pisa part of?
Atalanta vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 46% chance of winning, Pisa a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atalanta and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Pisa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.07) and Pisa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.85x) against Atalanta's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.51
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.46
1.02
Pisa xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.02 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta come into this having played 38 games, going 22W 8D 8L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. Atalanta haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.95 PPG from 38 outings (22W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. Pisa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Atalanta against 1.95 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atalanta's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.63 scored and 0.97 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Pisa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Pre-Season
Pisa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Pisa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 22W 8D 8L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 8D 8L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Pisa away?
Atalanta's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.68 PPG; Pisa away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pisa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atalanta
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 0, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Pisa 1-1 Atalanta.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 68%, Pisa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Atalanta) and 42% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Atalanta's games and 47% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Atalanta's recent games and 42% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Pisa tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pisa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Atalanta and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 46% | Draw 28% | Pisa 26%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 55%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.95 PPG, Pisa 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.