Atalanta vs Fiorentina – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to New Balance Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's home record at New Balance Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fiorentina — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Atalanta) versus 0.80 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Atalanta, 4 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 56% versus Fiorentina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 46% | Fiorentina 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.043 / defence 1.241 | Fiorentina attack 1.148 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Data: 48 Atalanta games / 48 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 46%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Fiorentina 2.17. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Atalanta 1.83 / Fiorentina 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.043 / def 1.241 | Fiorentina attack 1.148 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Fiorentina xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at New Balance Arena.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 34% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Record (10 meetings): Atalanta 3W | Draws 3 | Fiorentina 4W.
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
34%
2.96
21%
4.86
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.97
2.14
Fiorentina xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
12%
8.51
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
4%
25.21
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Atalanta and 2.14 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 18W 16D 14L from 48 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 20L across 48 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fiorentina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 18W 16D 14L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 11W 17D 20L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.75 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
3
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2026, when Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 46%, Fiorentina 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atalanta) and 67% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atalanta have failed to score in 29% of games; Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atalanta's recent matches and 58% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Atalanta's matches and 67% of Fiorentina's.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →