Waterford 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 35 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Waterford are significantly better at Waterford Regional Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Bohemians's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Waterford have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Bohemians have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Waterford winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Waterford and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 49% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | Bohemians 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.86 xG and Bohemians 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.884 / defence 1.118 | Bohemians attack 1.109 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.029. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Waterford games / 70 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 23% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 44%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Waterford dominate the H2H record, yet Bohemians are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 60% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 23% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Waterford 0.86 / Bohemians 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.884 / def 1.118 | Bohemians attack 1.109 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bohemians xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 23% chance of winning, Bohemians a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Record (3 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 0W.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Waterford vs Bohemians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
23%
4.36
33%
3.02
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.13
1.27
Bohemians xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Waterford and 1.27 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 14W 5D 16L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 11W 10D 14L from 35 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.34 PPG, Bohemians on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 5D 16L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Waterford's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.41 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 59%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 35% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 35%; Waterford have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Waterford's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 35% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.86 xG and Bohemians 1.27 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Bohemians attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 34/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 23% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 44%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Bohemians 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.34 PPG, Bohemians 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.