UCD 0-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Shamrock Rovers.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

UCD and Shamrock Rovers meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

UCD's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

UCD's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Shamrock Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 1.00 PPG clear of UCD over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Shamrock Rovers, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended UCD 0–3 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.

Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Shamrock Rovers 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.48 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.690 / defence 1.136 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.302 / defence 0.537. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.214. UCD's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.48. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.537, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling UCD's projected output down. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack rating of 1.302, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from UCD's last 50 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 50.

Result probabilities: UCD 9% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 69%. Fair-value odds: UCD 10.75 | Draw 4.71 | Shamrock Rovers 1.44. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (69%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — UCD's lower xG of 0.48 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 50% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).

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