Derry City 4-1 UCD – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Derry City (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Derry City face UCD.

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Analysis

UCD make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Friday 19 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Derry City's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Derry City. A 0.70 PPG lead over UCD (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Derry City, who have won 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against UCD — UCD have 0 wins, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended Derry City 4–0 UCD — a Derry City win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Derry City and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Derry City — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

UCD — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 50% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 42% | UCD 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.65 xG and UCD 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.918 / defence 0.721 | UCD attack 0.657 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.232. UCD's defence rating of 1.367 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Derry City have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling UCD's projected output down. Data: built from Derry City's last 52 games and UCD's last 51.

Result probabilities: Derry City 63% | Draw 24% | UCD 13%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.58 | Draw 4.21 | UCD 7.82. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (63%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Derry City's last 10 home games and UCD's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derry City 40% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games).

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