St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Drogheda United's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 1, Drogheda United 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Drogheda United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Drogheda United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Drogheda United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.279 / defence 0.989 | Drogheda United attack 0.976 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.131. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 St Patrick's Athl. games / 55 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Drogheda United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 / Drogheda United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.279 / def 0.989 | Drogheda United attack 0.976 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Drogheda United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 June 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 52% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
Record (4 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 3 | Drogheda United 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.28) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.21
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.82
1.09
Drogheda United xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.09 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 13D 23L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.07 PPG from 72 outings (18W 23D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 21W 5D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (7W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 18W 23D 31L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Drogheda United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 61% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Drogheda United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 61% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 61% of Drogheda United's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Drogheda United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Drogheda United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against Drogheda United attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.