St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Derry City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for St Patrick's Athl..

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Derry City winning.

It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Derry City trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 50% versus Derry City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Derry City 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.29 xG and Derry City 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.306 / defence 1.019 | Derry City attack 0.943 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.029. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derry City's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 St Patrick's Athl. games / 70 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 41% | Draw 32% | Derry City 26%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Derry City 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Derry City 30%.

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