St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 39%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 July 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 4W 4D 2L at Richmond Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Bohemians 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Bohemians 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 53% | Bohemians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.986 / defence 0.954 | Bohemians attack 1.040 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.045. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 58 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Bohemians 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 4 Jul 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 / Bohemians 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.986 / def 0.954 | Bohemians attack 1.040 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 July 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 39% chance of winning, Bohemians a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
Record (5 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (0.99) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.46
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Bohemians xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.04 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 15D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (22W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.50 PPG, Bohemians on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.14 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 24W 15D 19L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 22W 13D 23L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.90 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.34 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 48%, Bohemians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 41% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 45% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 41% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 53%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.