St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.80 xG and Bohemians 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.318 / defence 0.792 | Bohemians attack 0.938 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.152. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 St Patrick's Athl. games / 62 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 17%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Bohemians 5.88. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.80 / Bohemians 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.318 / def 0.792 | Bohemians attack 0.938 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 60% chance of winning, Bohemians a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.32) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.32
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
Bohemians xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
34.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.86 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 62 games, going 32W 11D 19L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.47 PPG from 62 outings (25W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.73 PPG, Bohemians on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 18W 5D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.39 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 32W 11D 19L in their last 62 games (1.73 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.90 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.26 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Bohemians 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 55% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 27, as St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.80 xG and Bohemians 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Bohemians attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 17%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 PPG, Bohemians 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.