Shelbourne 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Shelbourne, 1.70 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 45% versus Shamrock Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Shamrock Rovers 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shelbourne surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Shamrock Rovers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.81 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.838 / defence 0.897 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.102 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.152. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.652, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shelbourne's projected output down. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 62 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 62.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.89 | Draw 3.21 | Shamrock Rovers 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 70% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 27 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Shelbourne 0.81 / Shamrock Rovers 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.838 / def 0.897 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.102 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 11 August 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 27) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.84) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.10x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 62 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.89
31%
3.21
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.95
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.14 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 23D 20L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 38W 15D 9L from 62 games, 2.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 12D 9L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 14W 10D 7L from their last 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.77 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Shelbourne (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 19W 23D 20L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 38W 15D 9L in their last 62 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.35 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 48%, Shamrock Rovers 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shelbourne) and 36% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 48%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 36% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 32% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 36% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 27, as Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.81 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.65, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Shamrock Rovers 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.