Longford Town 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Waterford (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Longford Town face Waterford.

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Analysis

Waterford make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Longford Town have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Longford Town at home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Waterford's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Waterford's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Waterford are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Waterford have the stronger record — 3 wins to Longford Town's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2021, ended Longford Town 1–4 Waterford — a Waterford win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Waterford have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Waterford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 44% versus Waterford 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 41% | Waterford 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.80 xG and Waterford 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.620 / defence 1.617 | Waterford attack 0.787 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.147. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Waterford's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.46. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.617 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 34 games and Waterford's last 34.

Result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Waterford 53%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.88 | Draw 3.75 | Waterford 1.89. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Longford Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 60% (last 10 away games).

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