Drogheda United 0-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 4W 1D 5L at Head in the Game Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Dundalk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 48% versus Dundalk 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 42% | Dundalk 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.17 xG and Dundalk 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.888 / defence 0.969 | Dundalk attack 0.747 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.115. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Drogheda United games / 33 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 25%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Dundalk 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Drogheda United 1.17 / Dundalk 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.888 / def 0.969 | Dundalk attack 0.747 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Dundalk xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 0 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 44% chance of winning, Dundalk a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.89x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.75x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.30
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.98
0.81
Dundalk xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.81 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 13L across 33 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.27 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Drogheda United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.21 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 11W 9D 13L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.47 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Dundalk 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Drogheda United) and 41% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Drogheda United's games and 65% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Drogheda United's recent games and 41% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.17 xG and Dundalk 0.81 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Dundalk attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 25%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 42%, Dundalk 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.33 PPG, Dundalk 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.