Finn Harps 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Finn Harps welcome Shelbourne to Finn Park in Premier Division (matchday 31). Kick-off is Friday 30 September 2022 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shelbourne stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shelbourne's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Finn Harps at 0.60 PPG versus Shelbourne's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Finn Harps, 1 for Shelbourne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2022, ended Finn Harps 1–3 Shelbourne — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Finn Harps trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shelbourne trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 52% versus Shelbourne 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 69% | Shelbourne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.27 xG and Shelbourne 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.978 / defence 1.268 | Shelbourne attack 0.865 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 0.951. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 66 games and Shelbourne's last 29.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 42% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.40 | Draw 3.57 | Shelbourne 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 30% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 31 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 September 2022 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 42% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Finn Harps 1.27 / Shelbourne 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.978 / def 1.268 | Shelbourne attack 0.865 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.269 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shelbourne xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Shelbourne kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shelbourne kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 30 September 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shelbourne part of?
Finn Harps vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 31) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 42% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Finn Harps and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Finn Harps vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 66 games and Shelbourne's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.57
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.32
1.04
Shelbourne xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.04 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Finn Harps come into this having played 29 games, going 4W 5D 20L for 0.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Finn Harps's home form reads 3W 2D 9L across their last 14 home games, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 14 away games (5W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Finn Harps are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 0.86 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 4W 5D 20L in their last 29 games (0.59 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 0.79 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2022, when Finn Harps won Shelbourne 0-3 Finn Harps.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
1
Draws
1
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shelbourne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 2, Shelbourne have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2022: Finn Harps 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shelbourne?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 36%, Shelbourne 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 36% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 36%; Finn Harps have failed to score in 50% of games; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 43% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Finn Harps and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 36% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finn Park, Regular Season - 31, as Finn Harps and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.27 xG and Shelbourne 1.04 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.98 / defence 1.27 against Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 42% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 69%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.