Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derry City at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Finn Harps encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 7 October 2022 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Derry City stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Derry City's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Finn Harps have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Derry City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Derry City have won 3, Finn Harps 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Jul 2022, ended Derry City 2–1 Finn Harps — a Derry City win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Derry City in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus Finn Harps 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 45% | Finn Harps 61%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.20 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.051 / defence 0.753 | Finn Harps attack 0.945 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.025. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.587 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Derry City have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Finn Harps's projected output down. Data: built from Derry City's last 67 games and Finn Harps's last 67.

Result probabilities: Derry City 71% | Draw 18% | Finn Harps 11%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.41 | Draw 5.54 | Finn Harps 9.13. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Derry City's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derry City 50% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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