Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Derry City (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derry City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derry City, 1 for Finn Harps and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Derry City in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus Finn Harps 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 45% | Finn Harps 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.20 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.051 / defence 0.753 | Finn Harps attack 0.945 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.025. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Derry City's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Derry City games / 67 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 71% | Draw 18% | Finn Harps 11%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Finn Harps 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 50% | Finn Harps 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 71% | Draw 18% | Finn Harps 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Derry City 2.20 / Finn Harps 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.051 / def 0.753 | Finn Harps attack 0.945 / def 1.587 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Derry City (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Finn Harps xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Finn Harps kick off?
Derry City vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 October 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Derry City 3 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Derry City vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Finn Harps part of?
Derry City vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 71% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derry City and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 3W | Draws 3 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in?
Derry City (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 1.05x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.54
11%
9.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.93
0.73
Finn Harps xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
9.13
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
82.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Derry City and 0.73 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derry City come into this having played 67 games, going 31W 22D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Finn Harps sit at 0.94 PPG from 67 outings (15W 18D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derry City's home form reads 13W 14D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Finn Harps have taken 0.88 points per game from 33 outings (7W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.09 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 31W 22D 14L in their last 67 games (1.72 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 15W 18D 34L in their last 67 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Finn Harps away?
Derry City's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.61 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Derry City or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Finn Harps have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 58%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derry City) and 76% (Finn Harps). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Finn Harps in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Derry City's games and 61% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Derry City's matches and 76% of Finn Harps's.
Do Derry City and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Finn Harps 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.20 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 0.75 against Finn Harps attack 0.94 / defence 1.59, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 71% | Draw 18% | Finn Harps 11%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 45%, Finn Harps 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Finn Harps's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.