Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dundalk at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Finn Harps encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dundalk welcome Finn Harps to Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 22 July 2022 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Dundalk have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Finn Harps stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Finn Harps and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2022, ended Dundalk 1–0 Finn Harps — a Dundalk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dundalk in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 56% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 46% | Finn Harps 59%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.51 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.312 / defence 0.710 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.093. Dundalk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.312 — their 2.51 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.481 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Dundalk have a tight defence (rating 0.710), which is pulling Finn Harps's projected output down. Data: built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Finn Harps's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.32 | Draw 6.59 | Finn Harps 11.36. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (76%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dundalk 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 25 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 July 2022 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dundalk 2.51 / Finn Harps 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.312 / def 0.710 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Finn Harps xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Finn Harps kick off?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 22 July 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Dundalk 3 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Dundalk vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Finn Harps part of?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 25) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 76% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dundalk vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Finn Harps's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.59
9%
11.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.24
0.73
Finn Harps xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.59
15%
Draw
11.36
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
12.27
Win to Nil
36%
2.74
1%
139.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.73 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk's recent record stands at 24W 18D 17L from 59 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 29L across 59 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Finn Harps heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 18W 4D 7L from their last 29 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.07 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
Dundalk (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Finn Harps away?
Dundalk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.00 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 14 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dundalk have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps.
Dundalk's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 59%, Finn Harps 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Dundalk and 72% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Finn Harps in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Finn Harps matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dundalk's games and 59% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dundalk and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Dundalk's matches and 72% of Finn Harps's.
Do Dundalk and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Dundalk's recent matches and 76% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 3-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.51 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.31 / defence 0.71 against Finn Harps attack 0.95 / defence 1.48, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 46%, Finn Harps 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Finn Harps's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.