UCD 0-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this UCD vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
UCD Bowl plays host to UCD versus Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 22 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, UCD have posted 0W 4D 6L at UCD Bowl — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: UCD 0W, Shelbourne 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Shelbourne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
UCD goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 41% versus Shelbourne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 46% | Shelbourne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.655 / defence 1.358 | Shelbourne attack 0.801 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.093. UCD's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 UCD games / 22 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 28% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Shelbourne 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: UCD 50% | Shelbourne 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 28% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG UCD 0.90 / Shelbourne 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.655 / def 1.358 | Shelbourne attack 0.801 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Shelbourne xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Shelbourne kick off?
UCD vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 July 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
UCD 0 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is UCD vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Shelbourne part of?
UCD vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 28% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both UCD and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
Record (2 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 1W.
What form are UCD and Shelbourne in?
UCD (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
UCD's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.80x) against UCD's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
28%
3.59
30%
3.37
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
UCD xG
Total xG
2.09
1.19
Shelbourne xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are UCD and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for UCD and 1.19 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD's recent record stands at 2W 6D 14L from 22 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 10L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shelbourne by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, UCD have managed 0W 5D 6L from 11 games — 0.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 0.95 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 2W 6D 14L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 8W 4D 10L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.45 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
UCD see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 46%, Shelbourne 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (UCD) and 36% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 54% of games; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of UCD's recent matches and 46% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of UCD's recent games and 36% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 0-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 1.19 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. UCD fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shelbourne outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.36 against Shelbourne attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 28% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 46%, Shelbourne 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.