Derry City 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.80 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Derry City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Derry City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 50% versus St Patrick's Athl. 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.35 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.201 / defence 0.932 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.934 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.025. Data: 64 Derry City games / 64 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 24%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.17. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Derry City 1.35 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.201 / def 0.932 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.934 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 August 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 47% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (6 meetings): Derry City 4W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.55
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.25
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Derry City and 0.89 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 27W 19D 18L from 64 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 20L across 64 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.56 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 16W 10D 6L from 32 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 11W 8D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; St Patrick's Athl. in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 27W 19D 18L in their last 64 games (1.56 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.81 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 62%, St Patrick's Athl. 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 47% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 38%; St Patrick's Athl. in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Derry City's recent matches and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.35 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 47% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.56 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.