Bray Wanderers 1-3 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bray Wanderers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Finals sees Drogheda United travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Bray Wanderers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bray Wanderers 1.33 xG and Drogheda United 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bray Wanderers attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.865 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.024. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Bray Wanderers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Bray Wanderers games / 72 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bray Wanderers 42% | Draw 32% | Drogheda United 26%. Fair-value odds: Bray Wanderers 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Drogheda United 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bray Wanderers are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bray Wanderers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Finals | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bray Wanderers 42% | Draw 32% | Drogheda United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Bray Wanderers 1.33 / Drogheda United 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bray Wanderers attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.865 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Bray Wanderers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bray Wanderers xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Drogheda United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Bray Wanderers 1 - 3 Drogheda United.
Where is Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United part of?
Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United is a Finals fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bray Wanderers a 42% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bray Wanderers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Drogheda United away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | CS 2.
What do the betting odds say about Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bray Wanderers's attack at 0.85x the league average against Drogheda United's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus Bray Wanderers's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bray Wanderers Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.16
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bray Wanderers xG
Total xG
2.35
1.02
Drogheda United xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bray Wanderers and 1.02 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bray Wanderers
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Bray Wanderers
0
Draws
1
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United?
From 1 meetings on record, Bray Wanderers have won 0, Drogheda United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 16 November 2024, when Bray Wanderers 1-3 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bray Wanderers home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Drogheda United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bray Wanderers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Bray Wanderers 1-3 at Tallaght Stadium, Finals, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bray Wanderers 1.33 xG and Drogheda United 1.02 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bray Wanderers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 0/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bray Wanderers 42% | Draw 32% | Drogheda United 26%, with Bray Wanderers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.