Volos NFC 4-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Kifisia in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kifisia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kifisia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Volos NFC, 1.00 for Kifisia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kifisia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Volos NFC 1W, Kifisia 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Kifisia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Volos NFC — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 56% versus Kifisia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 63% | Kifisia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.84 xG and Kifisia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.865 / defence 1.275 | Kifisia attack 0.820 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 26 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 46% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 28%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Kifisia 3.57. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | Kifisia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 46% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Volos NFC 1.84 / Kifisia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.865 / def 1.275 | Kifisia attack 0.820 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Kifisia xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Kifisia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Volos NFC 4 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Kifisia part of?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 46% chance of winning, Kifisia a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Volos NFC and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
Record (2 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Kifisia in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.82x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.78
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.26
1.42
Kifisia xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.42 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Volos NFC come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 7D 15L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 0.81 PPG from 27 outings (4W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Volos NFC against 0.81 for Kifisia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Volos NFC's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Volos NFC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.15 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 games (0.81 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 10D 13L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Kifisia away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.92 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kifisia won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
From 5 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, Kifisia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kifisia 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Volos NFC, 62% for Kifisia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Volos NFC and 77% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Volos NFC's games and 62% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Volos NFC's matches and 77% of Kifisia's.
Do Volos NFC and Kifisia tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Kifisia 4-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.84 xG and Kifisia 1.42 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against Kifisia attack 0.82 / defence 1.30, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 46% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 28%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 63%, Kifisia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.81 PPG, Kifisia 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kifisia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.