Kifisia 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kifisia face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos plays host to Kifisia versus OFI in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Kifisia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
OFI have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
OFI away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Kifisia, 1.00 for OFI — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Kifisia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended Kifisia 2–1 OFI — a Kifisia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 62% versus OFI 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 69% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 2.06 xG and OFI 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.945 / defence 1.322 | OFI attack 0.686 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. OFI's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. OFI's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Data: built from Kifisia's last 26 games and OFI's last 52.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 1.83 | Draw 4.05 | OFI 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Kifisia (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kifisia's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kifisia 50% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Kifisia 2.06 / OFI 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.945 / def 1.322 | OFI attack 0.686 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
OFI xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kifisia vs OFI FAQs
What time does Kifisia vs OFI kick off?
Kifisia vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Kifisia 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Kifisia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What competition is Kifisia vs OFI part of?
Kifisia vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 55% chance of winning, OFI a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kifisia and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kifisia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.94x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.69x) against Kifisia's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Kifisia's last 26 games and OFI's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.05
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.30
1.23
OFI xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
38.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kifisia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.23 for OFI, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kifisia come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 9D 13L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, OFI sit at 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (5W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Kifisia against 0.96 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kifisia's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across their last 13 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 13 away games (0W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
OFI
Blended
Kifisia (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kifisia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Kifisia and OFI in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 9D 13L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or OFI away?
Kifisia's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.08 PPG; OFI away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kifisia
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Kifisia vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kifisia have won 2, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: OFI 2-0 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and OFI?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 62%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Kifisia and 69% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 31% of games; OFI in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kifisia and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kifisia and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kifisia's matches and 69% of OFI's.
Do Kifisia and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 85% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Relegation Round - 1, as Kifisia and OFI drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 2.06 xG and OFI 1.23 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 2.1 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against OFI attack 0.69 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 69%, OFI 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 0.81 PPG, OFI 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.