PAOK vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Volos NFC travel to Toumba Stadium to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 49% versus Volos NFC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | Volos NFC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.04 xG and Volos NFC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.151 / defence 1.058 | Volos NFC attack 0.855 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.065. Data: 33 PAOK games / 33 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 40% | Volos NFC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG PAOK 2.04 / Volos NFC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.151 / def 1.058 | Volos NFC attack 0.855 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: PAOK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Volos NFC xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 60% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 8W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.15) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.04
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.01
0.96
Volos NFC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
51.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for PAOK and 0.96 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 23W 10D 6L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 9W 8D 22L from 39 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.45 PPG from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 15L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 games (2.03 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 8D 22L in their last 39 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.45 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 35%, Volos NFC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PAOK) and 55% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Volos NFC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PAOK's matches and 55% of Volos NFC's.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.