Panserraikos 1-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Panserraikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Panserraikos, 1.50 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — Panserraikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, PAOK have the stronger record — 3 wins to Panserraikos's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Panserraikos 2–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PAOK have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 52% versus PAOK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 52% | PAOK 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panserraikos surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.17 xG and PAOK 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.081 / defence 1.183 | PAOK attack 1.379 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.216. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.379, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 39 games and PAOK's last 39.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 21% | Draw 24% | PAOK 55%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.74 | Draw 4.21 | PAOK 1.81. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.17 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (PAOK 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 21% | Draw 24% | PAOK 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Panserraikos 1.17 / PAOK 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.081 / def 1.183 | PAOK attack 1.379 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: PAOK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.98
PAOK xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panserraikos vs PAOK kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Panserraikos 1 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Panserraikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs PAOK part of?
Panserraikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 14) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 21% chance of winning, PAOK a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Panserraikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.08x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.38x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 39 games and PAOK's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.74
24%
4.21
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
3.16
1.98
PAOK xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
34.48
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.98 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 12D 20L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 30W 8D 8L from 46 games, 2.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panserraikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 16W 4D 3L from their last 23 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.28 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while PAOK have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.52 PPG; PAOK away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PAOK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAOK have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 5-0 Panserraikos on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAOK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Panserraikos, 74% for PAOK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Panserraikos and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and PAOK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Panserraikos's games and 74% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panserraikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Panserraikos's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Panserraikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 78% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panserraikos 1-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.17 xG and PAOK 1.98 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against PAOK attack 1.38 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 21% | Draw 24% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 52%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.