Panetolikos 0-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.70 for PAOK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
PAOK hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 47% versus PAOK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | PAOK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.03 xG and PAOK 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.968 / defence 0.966 | PAOK attack 1.522 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.250. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.522 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Panetolikos games / 40 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.79. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | PAOK 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Panetolikos 1.03 / PAOK 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.968 / def 0.966 | PAOK attack 1.522 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.84
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 21% chance of winning, PAOK a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 7W.
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.97) and PAOK's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.52x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.81
23%
4.33
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.87
1.84
PAOK xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
30.20
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.84 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 15W 13D 19L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 31W 8D 8L from 47 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 16W 4D 3L from 23 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.32 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while PAOK have gone 31W 8D 8L in their last 47 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.35 PPG; PAOK away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PAOK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 39%, PAOK 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Panetolikos and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Panetolikos's games and 74% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Panetolikos's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Panetolikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAOK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.03 xG and PAOK 1.84 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against PAOK attack 1.52 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.