Panserraikos 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panetolikos at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to face Panserraikos in Super League 1 (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Panserraikos (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panserraikos at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.70 for Panetolikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Panetolikos, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Panserraikos 0–3 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Panetolikos have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 52% versus Panetolikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 52% | Panetolikos 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panserraikos surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Panetolikos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.08 xG and Panetolikos 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.093 / defence 1.326 | Panetolikos attack 0.885 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.210. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 41 games and Panetolikos's last 41.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 29% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 45%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.48 | Draw 3.77 | Panetolikos 2.23. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Panetolikos 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 70% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 29% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Panserraikos 1.08 / Panetolikos 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.093 / def 1.326 | Panetolikos attack 0.885 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Panetolikos xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Panserraikos 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Panetolikos part of?
Panserraikos vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 16) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 29% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panserraikos and Panetolikos will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Panserraikos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.09x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.89x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 41 games and Panetolikos's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
29%
3.48
27%
3.77
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.50
1.42
Panetolikos xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.42 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 12D 22L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 15W 13D 20L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.21 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 6W 9D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.06 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Panetolikos away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.46 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panserraikos and Panetolikos, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Panserraikos on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
4
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 1, Panetolikos have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 62%, Panetolikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Panserraikos) and 42% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Panetolikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Panserraikos's games and 54% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panserraikos and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Panserraikos's recent games and 42% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 79% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panserraikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Panetolikos finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.08 xG and Panetolikos 1.42 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.09 / defence 1.33 against Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 29% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 45%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 52%, Panetolikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.