Panserraikos 0-2 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panserraikos vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panserraikos and Larisa meet at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Panserraikos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 4D 3L from 7 games (0.57 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Larisa have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 0W 2D 1L from 3 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.57 for Larisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Panserraikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Larisa in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Larisa — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panserraikos 57% and Larisa 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panserraikos 43% | Larisa 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.40 xG and Larisa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.887 / defence 0.992 | Larisa attack 0.829 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.272. Data: 33 Panserraikos games / 7 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 44% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Larisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panserraikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Panserraikos 60% | Larisa 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 44% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Panserraikos 1.40 / Larisa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.887 / def 0.992 | Larisa attack 0.829 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Larisa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panserraikos vs Larisa kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Panserraikos 0 - 2 Larisa.
Where is Panserraikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Larisa part of?
Panserraikos vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 44% chance of winning, Larisa a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panserraikos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Larisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panserraikos and Larisa in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Larisa (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (0.89) and Larisa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.83x) against Panserraikos's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.54
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.45
1.05
Larisa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.05 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Larisa's form line: 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, 0.57 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Larisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.57 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Larisa have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Early Season
Larisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Larisa have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Larisa away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Larisa away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
1
Draws
2
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 1, Larisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Larisa?
Larisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Panserraikos, 67% for Larisa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panserraikos and 33% for Larisa.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 33% of games; Larisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Larisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Panserraikos's games and 67% of Larisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panserraikos's recent games and 33% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Larisa tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Larisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.40 xG and Larisa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Larisa outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Larisa attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 44% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Larisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 43%, Larisa 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Larisa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.71 PPG, Larisa 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Larisa win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.