Panserraikos 2-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panserraikos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Atromitos travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's home record at Dimotiko Stadio Serron: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Panserraikos at 1.00 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Panserraikos, 0 for Atromitos and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atromitos trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 49% versus Atromitos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 49% | Atromitos 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.10 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.029 / defence 1.100 | Atromitos attack 1.104 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.181. Data: 36 Panserraikos games / 36 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 28% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 44%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 50% | Atromitos 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 28% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Panserraikos 1.10 / Atromitos 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.029 / def 1.100 | Atromitos attack 1.104 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Atromitos xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Panserraikos 2 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 28% chance of winning, Atromitos a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panserraikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Panserraikos and Atromitos in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.03x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
28%
3.58
28%
3.56
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Atromitos xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.44 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panserraikos come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 12D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.05 PPG from 43 outings (10W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.12 PPG, Atromitos on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panserraikos's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.14 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.55 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panserraikos and Atromitos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
From 9 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 55%, Atromitos 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panserraikos) and 55% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Panserraikos's games and 55% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panserraikos's recent games and 55% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Panserraikos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Panserraikos 2-3 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.10 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atromitos outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Atromitos attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 28% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 44%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 49%, Atromitos 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.