PAOK 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for PAOK, 1.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: PAOK 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 65% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 0.95 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.950 / defence 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.979 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.210. Data: 36 PAOK games / 36 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 30% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 30% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG PAOK 0.95 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 0.950 / def 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.979 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 2 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 30% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (0.98x) against PAOK's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
30%
3.37
31%
3.28
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for PAOK and 1.14 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 31W 7D 8L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 28W 9D 9L from 46 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for PAOK against 2.02 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (16W 3D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.02 scored and 0.89 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 31W 7D 8L in their last 46 games (2.17 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 28W 9D 9L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.22 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.70 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 44%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (PAOK) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 35%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAOK's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of PAOK's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out PAOK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 2-3 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 0.95 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 30% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 65%, Olympiakos Piraeus 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.17 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.