Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Volos NFC travel to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to take on Panathinaikos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Panathinaikos have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panathinaikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The historical record gives Panathinaikos a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 49% versus Volos NFC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 53% | Volos NFC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.131 / defence 0.788 | Volos NFC attack 0.838 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.135. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Panathinaikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Panathinaikos games / 48 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 50% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Panathinaikos 1.62 / Volos NFC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.131 / def 0.788 | Volos NFC attack 0.838 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Volos NFC xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 58% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panathinaikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
Record (7 meetings): Panathinaikos 6W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.13) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.07
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.38
0.75
Volos NFC xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
3%
29.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 30W 14D 11L from 55 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 29L across 55 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 17W 7D 4L from 28 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.96 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 30W 14D 11L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.07 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Panathinaikos won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 50%, Volos NFC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panathinaikos) and 46% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Volos NFC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 39% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 46% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, Volos NFC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.