Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panathinaikos face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Volos NFC travel to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to take on Panathinaikos in Super League 1 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Panathinaikos at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Volos NFC have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Panathinaikos have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Panathinaikos: 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Volos NFC, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Panathinaikos 1–0 Volos NFC — a Panathinaikos win.
The head-to-head data gives Panathinaikos an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 49% versus Volos NFC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 53% | Volos NFC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.131 / defence 0.788 | Volos NFC attack 0.838 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.135. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panathinaikos's projected output up. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Volos NFC's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 48 games and Volos NFC's last 48.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.72 | Draw 4.07 | Volos NFC 5.85. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.62 / Volos NFC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.131 / def 0.788 | Volos NFC attack 0.838 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Volos NFC xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 58% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panathinaikos and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.13) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 48 games and Volos NFC's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.07
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.38
0.75
Volos NFC xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
3%
29.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 30W 14D 11L from 55 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 29L across 55 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 17W 7D 4L from their last 28 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.96 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 30W 14D 11L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.07 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Panathinaikos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Panathinaikos won Panathinaikos 3-0 Volos NFC.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Volos NFC 0-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Volos NFC?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 50%, Volos NFC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panathinaikos) and 46% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Volos NFC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 39% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 46% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 68% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 58% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 17%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, Volos NFC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.