PAOK 7-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PAOK (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Toumbas this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 9 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.
The historical record gives PAOK a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lamia trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 67% | Lamia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.091 / defence 1.074 | Lamia attack 0.671 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.165. Data: 48 PAOK games / 48 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 51% | Draw 27% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 4.55. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 51% | Draw 27% | Lamia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG PAOK 1.43 / Lamia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.091 / def 1.074 | Lamia attack 0.671 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: PAOK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lamia xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Lamia kick off?
PAOK vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Lamia?
PAOK 7 - 0 Lamia.
Where is PAOK vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Lamia part of?
PAOK vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 51% chance of winning, Lamia a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PAOK and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
Record (9 meetings): PAOK 8W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are PAOK and Lamia in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.09) and Lamia's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.71
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.27
0.84
Lamia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for PAOK and 0.84 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 37W 9D 12L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 10W 14D 34L from 58 games, 0.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.00 PPG from 29 outings (18W 4D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 8D 17L from 29 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.91 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 37W 9D 12L in their last 58 games (2.07 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 14D 34L in their last 58 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Lamia away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.69 PPG.
Have PAOK or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lamia in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Lamia?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 48%, Lamia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for PAOK and 59% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lamia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAOK's recent matches and 55% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of PAOK's matches and 59% of Lamia's.
Do PAOK and Lamia tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lamia in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 7-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 5.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Lamia attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 51% | Draw 27% | Lamia 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Lamia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.