Panathinaikos 3-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host OFI at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Panathinaikos at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, OFI have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Panathinaikos have won 3, OFI 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Panathinaikos 1–0 OFI — a Panathinaikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
OFI in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 49% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 53% | OFI 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and OFI 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.000 / defence 0.697 | OFI attack 0.959 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.095. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.697), which is pulling OFI's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 46 games and OFI's last 46.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.16 | Draw 3.26 | OFI 4.35. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 40% (last 10 home games) | OFI 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.17 / OFI 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.000 / def 0.697 | OFI attack 0.959 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
OFI xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs OFI FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs OFI kick off?
Panathinaikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Panathinaikos 3 - 2 OFI.
Where is Panathinaikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs OFI part of?
Panathinaikos vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Panathinaikos and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Panathinaikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.00) and OFI's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 46 games and OFI's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.26
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.91
0.73
OFI xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.73 for OFI, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 29W 14D 10L from 53 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 19L across 53 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 16W 7D 3L from their last 26 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 11D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.19 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
Panathinaikos (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Panathinaikos vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 29W 14D 10L in their last 53 games (1.91 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 20D 19L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or OFI away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.12 PPG; OFI away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OFI in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 4 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won Panathinaikos 4-0 OFI.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 6, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2026: Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 46%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panathinaikos) and 58% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; OFI in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 58% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 73% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out OFI 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 3-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and OFI 0.73 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, OFI 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.