OFI 0-5 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OFI register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAOK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for OFI, 3 for PAOK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAOK trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus PAOK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 54% | PAOK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.15 xG and PAOK 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.185 / defence 1.118 | PAOK attack 1.297 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.094. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 OFI games / 47 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 25% | PAOK 47%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | PAOK 2.13. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 25% | PAOK 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG OFI 1.15 / PAOK 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.185 / def 1.118 | PAOK attack 1.297 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: PAOK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.59
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 0 - 5 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 2 | PAOK 3W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.19) and PAOK's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.62
25%
4.01
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
OFI xG
Total xG
2.74
1.59
PAOK xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for OFI and 1.59 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 20D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.06 PPG from 54 outings (34W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 2.19 points per game from 27 outings (18W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 14W 20D 20L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 34W 9D 11L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.44 PPG; PAOK away: 2.19 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, PAOK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 56%, PAOK 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (OFI) and 67% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of OFI's games and 70% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of OFI's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, PAOK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-5 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 0-5 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.15 xG and PAOK 1.59 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. OFI fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.59 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 28% | Draw 25% | PAOK 47%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.