Panathinaikos 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panathinaikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Panathinaikos stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Panathinaikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lamia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Panathinaikos's games and 70% of Lamia's (from Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 7 wins compared to 0 for Lamia and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Panathinaikos 5–0 Lamia — a Panathinaikos win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Panathinaikos and goals — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 46% versus Lamia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 59% | Lamia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.42 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.947 / defence 0.786 | Lamia attack 1.024 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.226. Lamia's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panathinaikos's projected output up. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 36 games and Lamia's last 36.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.16 | Draw 3.54 | Lamia 3.92. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.42 / Lamia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.947 / def 0.786 | Lamia attack 1.024 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lamia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, Lamia a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 36 games and Lamia's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.54
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
Lamia xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.99 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 25W 11D 10L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 10W 12D 24L from 46 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 7D 12L from their last 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.11 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 61%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 12D 24L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 1.96 PPG; Lamia away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lamia in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won Lamia 0-5 Panathinaikos.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2025: Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 48%, Lamia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Panathinaikos and 70% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lamia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Lamia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Panathinaikos's games and 65% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panathinaikos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Panathinaikos's matches and 70% of Lamia's.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 70% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.42 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Lamia attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 59%, Lamia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.