Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Olympiakos Piraeus face Asteras Tripolis.

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Analysis

Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Asteras Tripolis's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Asteras Tripolis's last 10 away games) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Asteras Tripolis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Asteras Tripolis managing 1 and 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 Asteras Tripolis — a Asteras Tripolis win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).

Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 54% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Asteras Tripolis 52%). Note also that Asteras Tripolis surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.60 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.335 / defence 0.846 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.978 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.135. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.335 — their 1.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 47 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 47.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 | Draw 3.99 | Asteras Tripolis 4.51. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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