OFI 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OFI) versus 1.30 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Levadiakos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OFI 59% and Levadiakos 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 59% | Levadiakos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.170 / defence 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 1.135 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.210. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 OFI games / 17 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Levadiakos 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 13 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG OFI 1.78 / Levadiakos 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.170 / def 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 1.135 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: OFI (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Levadiakos xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 13 January 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 44% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.17) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.38
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
OFI xG
Total xG
3.30
1.52
Levadiakos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for OFI and 1.52 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, OFI have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 3W 8D 6L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.35 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.18 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.00 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OFI at 62%, Levadiakos at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for OFI and 62% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of OFI's games and 88% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OFI's matches and 62% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 18, as OFI and Levadiakos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.78 xG and Levadiakos 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Levadiakos landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 33%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 59%, Levadiakos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.35 PPG, Levadiakos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.