OFI 3-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Aris Thessalonikis 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.893 / defence 1.037 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.079. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG OFI 1.16 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.893 / def 1.037 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: OFI (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 3 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 35% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. OFI (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.89) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
OFI xG
Total xG
2.26
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for OFI and 1.10 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, OFI have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 11D 12L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 14W 5D 14L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.24 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.55 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 11D 12L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.94 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.94 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (OFI) and 47% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 47% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of OFI's recent matches and 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Aris Thessalonikis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Aris Thessalonikis 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.24 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.