Lamia 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lamia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lamia have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Lamia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.926 / defence 1.146 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.156 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 0.813. Data: 27 Lamia games / 27 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.76. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamia 1.65 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.926 / def 1.146 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.156 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.577 / away 0.813 • Poisson stance: Lamia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Aris Thessalonikis xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 47% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.18
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.08
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Lamia and 1.08 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 5W 15D 14L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 14W 5D 15L from 34 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.56 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 5W 15D 14L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 14W 5D 15L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Lamia's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.06 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 44%, Aris Thessalonikis 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lamia) and 56% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lamia's recent matches and 44% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lamia's recent games and 56% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.16 / defence 1.13, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 47% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 41%, Aris Thessalonikis 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.