Levadiakos 6-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Levadiakos's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 1W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Panetolikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus Panetolikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 54% | Panetolikos 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.27 xG and Panetolikos 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.262 / defence 0.938 | Panetolikos attack 0.949 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.235. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panetolikos's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Levadiakos games / 31 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Panetolikos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Panetolikos 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Levadiakos 1.27 / Panetolikos 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.262 / def 0.938 | Panetolikos attack 0.949 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Panetolikos xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Levadiakos 6 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 40% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levadiakos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 5 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 1.26x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.95x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.49
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Panetolikos xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.10 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 12D 14L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos's form line: 14W 10D 17L from 41 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.27 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 7W 8D 5L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.80 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.40 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
5
Draws
2
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, Panetolikos have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 55%, Panetolikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Levadiakos) and 20% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 45%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 30% of games; Panetolikos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 35% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Levadiakos's recent games and 20% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 6-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.27 xG and Panetolikos 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Panetolikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 40% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 54%, Panetolikos 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Panetolikos's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.39 PPG, Panetolikos 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.