Levadiakos 3-2 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Kifisia travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 August 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Levadia Stadium this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.48 xG and Kifisia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.010 / defence 1.048 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 0.879. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 0 Kifisia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 54% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 20%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Kifisia 5.00. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 54% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Levadiakos 1.48 / Kifisia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.010 / def 1.048 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.272 / away 0.879 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Kifisia xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kifisia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Levadiakos 3 - 2 Kifisia.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kifisia part of?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 54% chance of winning, Kifisia a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levadiakos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Kifisia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Levadiakos (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.78
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.26
0.78
Kifisia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
22.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.78 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
Kifisia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Kifisia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
0
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
From 2 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Kifisia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Kifisia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Kifisia 3-2 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.48 xG and Kifisia 0.78 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kifisia outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Kifisia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 54% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 20%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.