Kallithea 2-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kallithea vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Kallithea welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kallithea have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Kallithea have gone 0W 4D 4L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kallithea 0.40 PPG, Lamia 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kallithea, 0 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 62% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 50% | Lamia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.06 xG and Lamia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.852 / defence 1.487 | Lamia attack 0.805 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.137. Data: 16 Kallithea games / 42 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 27% | Lamia 43%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kallithea 75% | Lamia 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 27% | Lamia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Kallithea 1.06 / Lamia 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.852 / def 1.487 | Lamia attack 0.805 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Lamia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Lamia xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Lamia kick off?
Kallithea vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Lamia?
Kallithea 2 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Kallithea vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Lamia part of?
Kallithea vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 29% chance of winning, Lamia a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kallithea and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Kallithea 0W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Kallithea and Lamia in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kallithea's attack rating (0.85) and Lamia's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Kallithea's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.65
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.42
1.36
Lamia xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.36 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kallithea come into this having played 16 games, going 0W 9D 7L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.56 PPG from 16 outings (1W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kallithea on 0.56 PPG, Lamia on 0.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kallithea's home form reads 0W 4D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Kallithea are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kallithea have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Lamia in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 9D 7L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 6D 9L in their last 16 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.50 PPG; Lamia away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kallithea and Lamia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kallithea have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kallithea's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kallithea
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Lamia?
From 4 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 3, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Lamia?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 75%, Lamia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kallithea) and 25% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kallithea's games and 38% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kallithea vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Kallithea's recent games and 25% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Lamia tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kallithea defy the odds to beat Lamia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea beat Lamia 2-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.06 xG and Lamia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.85 / defence 1.49 against Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 29% | Draw 27% | Lamia 43%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 50%, Lamia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.56 PPG, Lamia 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.