Atromitos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Match Analysis

Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.10 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Atromitos 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 58% versus Aris Thessalonikis 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%). Note also that Aris Thessalonikis surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.993 / defence 1.022 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.329. Data: built from Atromitos's last 26 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Atromitos 35% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.82 | Draw 3.64 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Atromitos 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Atromitos 26 games, Aris Thessalonikis 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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