Atromitos 0-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 7 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atromitos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 55% versus Asteras Tripolis 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 37% | Asteras Tripolis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.53 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.870 / defence 1.045 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.946 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 31%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Atromitos 1.53 / Asteras Tripolis 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.870 / def 1.045 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.946 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Asteras Tripolis xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Atromitos 0 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 40% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.87) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.44
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.88
1.35
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.35 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 24D 25L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 15W 21D 29L from 65 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.11 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (11W 12D 8L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 7D 19L from 31 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.95 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 16W 24D 25L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 21D 29L in their last 65 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.45 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
0
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 48%, Asteras Tripolis 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Atromitos) and 45% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atromitos's recent matches and 42% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Atromitos's recent games and 45% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 0-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.53 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.35 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 40% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 31%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 37%, Asteras Tripolis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.