Asteras Tripolis 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this season.
OFI — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Asteras Tripolis) versus 1.40 (OFI). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Asteras Tripolis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OFI in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, OFI 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
OFI in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 52% versus OFI 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 50% | OFI 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.25 xG and OFI 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.940 / defence 0.923 | OFI attack 1.204 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.202. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. OFI have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Asteras Tripolis games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 34% | Draw 29% | OFI 38%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | OFI 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 60% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 34% | Draw 29% | OFI 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.25 / OFI 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.940 / def 0.923 | OFI attack 1.204 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.34
OFI xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 34% chance of winning, OFI a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 2 | OFI 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.94x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.50
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.59
1.34
OFI xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.34 for OFI, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 14W 9D 19L from 42 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 15L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.21 PPG, OFI on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 3W 9D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 16D 15L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or OFI away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.10 PPG; OFI away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 52%, OFI 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Asteras Tripolis) and 67% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 57% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Asteras Tripolis's matches and 67% of OFI's.
Do Asteras Tripolis and OFI tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OFI in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Asteras Tripolis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 3-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.25 xG and OFI 1.34 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against OFI attack 1.20 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 34% | Draw 29% | OFI 38%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 50%, OFI 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.21 PPG, OFI 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.