AEK Athens FC 2-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of PAOK's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AEK Athens FC, 1 for PAOK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 44% versus PAOK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 58% | PAOK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG and PAOK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.335 / defence 0.703 | PAOK attack 1.353 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.094. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 49% | Draw 26% | PAOK 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | PAOK 3.85. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | PAOK 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 49% | Draw 26% | PAOK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.54 / PAOK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.335 / def 0.703 | PAOK attack 1.353 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 3 PAOK.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 49% chance of winning, PAOK a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
Record (4 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 2 | PAOK 1W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.33x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.35x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.92
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.04
PAOK xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.04 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 62 games, going 39W 14D 9L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.03 PPG from 62 outings (39W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.11 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.03 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 23W 7D 1L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 2.00 points per game from 31 outings (19W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.23 scored and 0.97 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; PAOK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 39W 14D 9L in their last 62 games (2.11 PPG), while PAOK have gone 39W 9D 14L in their last 62 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.45 PPG; PAOK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, PAOK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 36%, PAOK 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for AEK Athens FC and 68% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 68% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 68% of PAOK's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, PAOK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 2-3 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG and PAOK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.70 against PAOK attack 1.35 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 49% | Draw 26% | PAOK 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 58%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.11 PPG, PAOK 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.